Political Paradoxes and Murphy’s Law #GE2015
Our political system maybe flawed or indeed broken – but globally, it is still enviable. This election has thrown up perhaps more than its fair share of ironic possibilities. Here are a few of my “favourites”:
1. Salmond in Downing Street
I suppose anything is possible. Miliband has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP, but there is still a theoretical possibility of Salmond re-emerging to take his smugness south and into some kind of place of power. Instead of being a big fish in a small pond, he could be a small fish in the driving seat of a (non-nuclear) submarine in a big pond. Instead of having Scotland moaning that its votes don’t count, England could have a turn of having a party in government that 0% of English voters voted for.
2. The Scottish Tail Wagging the English Dog
The Scottish ‘tail’ in this image would be Nicola Sturgeon, who isn’t standing in this election. But she is still likely to win it. Which is a work of genius.
3. Obstructive SNP bringing Tory government
If, as seems likely, there is no coalition with Labour, the SNP will support Labour on an issue by issue basis. They appear to be in a great position to bully Labour further to the left. If the SNP don’t get their own way and they withdraw their support of Labour policy/budgets etc, they risk having a Labour government collapse which would result in a Tory government.
4. Half of “The 55” desperate to see success for a party they disagree with.
Since the Referendum, “The 45” have stuck religiously to their conviction that the SNP should reign supreme. The rest of us have reverted back to pre-referendum allegiances which means that the votes of The 55 are spread thinly amongst the other parties. Tactical voting will be the only way to secure anything-but-the-SNP in various constituencies. This could result in many Tory voters voting Labour, Lib Dems voting Tory, Labour voters voting Lib Dem etc and generally awkward bedfellow arrangements until the election is over and the politicians thrash out how it is going to work.
5. Murphy’s Law
So for our local area, about two thirds to a half of “The 55” are probably Tory voters at heart, but will be likely to pin their hopes on Jim Murphy, leader of Scottish Labour, to avoid having the SNP represent us. So, any unionists on the left or the right are left feeling compelled to vote for Jim Murphy while trying to not look directly at the idea of waking up with Ed “Tuffy Nuff” Miliband in charge of the country. We ran past the Conservative office today and saw the “Vote for David Montgomery” signs. I wonder if, nearer the time, we may run past and see the notice, “Strike that, Vote Murphy.”
6. Prepare for Rose Tinted Memories
I like the status quo. And, with Nick Clegg having burned his tuition fee boats, there’s no chance of that.